The honored few who have been deemed worthy of an invitation and their established Vegas odds on taking home the coveted championship trophy.
Dane "The Poster Boy" Christofferson (9.1)
Quinn "Time Assassin" Christofferson (13.2)
Why they could win: Do we really need to go into deep analysis here? They've won this thing multiple times already, their handicaps line up perfectly for another run, and Quinn somehow appears to actually play better while recovering from psilocybin intoxication. Dane is a steady, machine like presence. His daily conditioning ensures peak performance and his morning affirmations ensure his mental game is relentlessly on point. Bet against this consistent, predictable, and proven duo at your own peril.
Why they won't: After eating three entire bags of mushrooms and washing them down with a liter of 1-Eye's mushroom tea, Quinn slips into the deepest drug induced sleep of his life. Despite Dane's constant text messages, calls to the room, and pleas for him to hurry up, Quinn misses his Day 3 tee time, forcing Dane to start the round alone.
Quinn promises to "hurry up," but despite his assurances, he exits his room at such a glacial pace that he actually manages to move backwards. The opposite of Quicksilver, he eventually comes to a complete stop. While the world continues to move on around him, Quinn is lost in a dimension without time. Frozen in a state of immobility, he misses the rest of the week entirely. Dane is forced to play solo, tumbling down the leaderboard, thus ending the Christofferson era.
Jason "I'd Putt That" Smith (20.9)
Jarrod "Croc Bait" Stevens (9.9)
Why they could win: Because Jason. That's the end of the argument. He's won more times than anyone finds impressive anymore. On the other side of the team coin, Jarrod is no longer new to the format, the hijinks, or the courses. All he has to do is sprinkle in a few birdies and Jason's magical Texas Wedge will handle the rest. At some point, we should just put the Christoffersons and whoever Jason partners with in a separate bracket and move on.
Why they won't: During dinner at McKee's, a table of boomers overhear Jarrod's Australian accent and immediately call Homeland Security. ICE Agents storm the course on Friday, placing Jarrod under arrest, and lock him in a detainee cage in Portland.
Without a partner to fall back on, Jason decides to go with his trusted putter, using it FOR EVERY SINGLE SHOT for the rest of the week. Unfortunately for Jason, his putter isn't built for that many consecutive hosel strikes, and after a full swing on the 16th hole at Bandon Dunes, the head snaps off, sails over the cliff, and embeds itself deep in the gorse. With no reliable clubs left in the bag, Jason walks off the course and heads straight to the Bunker Bar, where he remains for the rest of the week in a drunken stupor.
Jason "No Nut Forever" Thomas (16.0)
Jeremy "Toadstool" Williams (12.3)
Why they could win: While there's really no way to top last year's hole-in-one outbreak, the only thing missing from this team's resume is a title run. They've been in serious contention before and just need a few more putts to drop to take the crown. Then again, if they keep holing out from off the box, they don't really need putts to fall. Not that any of us would complain if that happens. They keep making aces, and we keep getting free drinks at dinner. Let's see if we can push that tab up high enough that Jason actually notices it when his credit card bill arrives in February.
Why they won't: Despite years of tradition, the resort ups their crackdown on outside liquor and searches Jeremy and Jason's bags pre-round. After all, they have to ensure they aren't trying to sneak more than two beers on the course. Completing their thorough search, security finds three entire cases of Coors Light, two handles of Fireball, fourteen baggies of mushrooms, and a strange powdery substance that tests positive for cocaine, Rohypnol, and Pixy Stix.
The DEA is called in immediately and the ACE Holes are transported to Guantanamo Bay. After a Netflix documentary airs about the duo's exploits, public outcry forces the government's hand and they are released. Unfortunately, the months of isolation and sober living take their toll. Both relocate to Columbia, take over Pablo Escobar's former compound, and launch a new drug empire the likes of which the world has never seen.
Barrett "Open Lap Seating" Smith (8.7)
Jared "That's So Bad!" Smith (7.1)
Why they could win: Coming off last year's second place finish, this lovable brotherly duo always seems to find itself in contention by week's end. Jared even managed a bonus trip to Bandon in November, further exorcising his long-standing Bandon demons and quietly convincing everyone this might finally be the year. Between Bear's steady (albeit boring) play and Jared's uncanny ability to make birdie from just about anywhere (except maybe the gorse), the ingredients for a championship are all there. If Jared can keep the ball on the North American continent, these two may finally break the curse and etch their names on the tournament trophy together. A bold ask, but stranger things have happened.
Why they won't: Following four nearly perfect rounds from Jared, the Smith brothers find themselves squarely in contention. Unfortunately, the moment Jared steps onto the first tee at Bandon Trails, the "death" portion of Jared's death-or-glory mantra takes full control. After triple bogeying four of the first six holes, Jared loses it, snaps every club in his bag, and helicopters what's left of his shattered driver in a fit of rage.
The shaft pierces Bear's thigh, severs his femoral artery, and ruins his favorite pair of golf pants. Bear goes into a heroic peg-leg limp-sprint to the seamstress shop at the main lodge. But it's too late, the blood has seeped deep into the fibers of the pants, and much like a PGA Championship patrol officer, his trousers are damaged beyond repair. Locked in a catatonic case of emotion, Bear is unable to continue, Jared has only half a 7-iron to finish, and the Smith brothers stumble home with a final round 97, hemorrhaging any chance they had at a 2026 title.
William "Wanna Bet?" Watson (6.0)
Doug "Dirty Bubbles" Brinkman (15.1)
Why they could win: The facts are simple and irrefutable: 1-Eye is a solid, reliable player, Dougie is always capable of moments of unexpected glory, and pressure and fear have never factored into their performance. Perennially a good time, it feels inevitable that one of these years the stars will align and everything will come together for these two life-long buddies. It won't take much for a breakout campaign and a championship run. At these odds, expect plenty of money to come in on this team. Don't be surprised if the line tightens as tournament week approaches. Too good to be considered a dark horse, this team has everything it takes to win.
Why they won't: Following his annual tradition, Doug heads straight for the hot tub after the round at Old Mac. There, he meets a mysterious stranger enjoying his final night at Bandon before departing on yet another two week golf trip. The beguiling outsider regales Dougie with tales of luxury, linksland bliss, and golf's distant homeland. Much like his own Bandon origin story, Doug is instantly infatuated and earns himself an invite to the next outing.
Eager to commit, Doug springs from the tepid water, only to discover he's been soaking so long he's pruned himself into the shape of a California raisin. His muscles, betrayed and weakened by the soak, can't support his enthusiasm and his knees buckle. As Doug collapses in a heap of wrinkles and regret, the stranger belts out an evil laugh, reveals himself as the devil incarnate, claims Doug's soul, and disappears into the Bandon fog.
Nate "Front Cup" Smith (13.5)
Sean "River'd Again" Murphy (8.9)
Why they could win: Nate is a model of consistency and has won here before (even though it comes with the Jason asterisk). Murphy, meanwhile, arrives as a much improved player with a legitimately solid handicap. All it will take is Sean performing anywhere close to his ceiling, Nate playing with his usual steadiness, and a few less rim jobs and extra putts dropping over the course of the week. Assuming Murph's golf cart chauffeur doesn't get lost between holes, this pairing has all the makings of a championship roster. And if all else fails, Nate could always "edit" the scorecards to create a couple dozen extra pops to quietly drop their score.
Why they won't: Running on fumes after a nine hour poker session, Murph accidentally grabs a full strength Budweiser from the cooler. The first sip touches his lips and he morphs into a chaotic hybrid of Barney Gumble and Frank the Tank. In minutes, every remaining drop of alcohol in the loft is gone. Murph's clothing soon follows.
Murph takes to the streets of the Bandon Dunes Golf Resort in a full jog, chanting nonsense and celebrating a sense of freedom no one wanted to see. Nate, awakened by the commotion and recognizing the early signs of catastrophe, loads Murph into the truck, escorts him straight to Coos Bay, checks him into a sober living recovery home, and vows to support him on the long road to recovery while the tournament marches on without them.
Jereme "Are You In?" Marshall (9.2)
Mike "Ben Dover" Fengler (0.1)
Why they could win: Jereme and Mike have been coming to this thing long enough to know exactly what matters and, more importantly, what doesn't. Given Mike's status as a PGA teaching professional, if this were a gross score event, the rest of the field would be duking it out for second place more often than not. While the handicap math doesn't always love them, experience does. They know the courses, the rhythms of the week, and how to avoid the self infliced disasters that quietly end most title runs. If Mike manages to keep things professional off the course, and Jereme plays his role cleanly, this pairing has the rare ability to make a net event feel uncomfortably close to a teaching clinic. This format might not be designed for them, but if things break right, it might not matter.
Why they won't: During dinner on Tuesday night, Fengler's perky waitress comes to take his order and innocently asks, "Are you ready for me, or should I come back in a few minutes?" The pressure builds in Fenger's head. Marshall immediately recognizes the look on his face and starts begging him not to say it, but Fengler can't control himself.
"Oh, I'm ready for you baby, but are you ready for me?
Bandon security leaps out from behind the bar and slams Fengler to the ground. Turns out the waitress was part of an undercover sting operation, hell bent on catching him in the act. Fengler is immediately escorted off property and put on the permanent blacklist. Word reaches the PGA of America, his membership is revoked, and Fengler is forced into a new career as a used car salesman in Sheridan, one of the poorest suburbs in the Denver metropolitan area.
Rob "Casting Couch" Hobson (8.1)
Justin "Dollar Store" Farris (1.1)
Why they could win: This team quietly checks a lot of boxes. Rob may not be fresh off a victory lap, but he's won this before and champions don't forget how to win. They wait for the right moment to remind everyone that they're a legend. He's been there before, knows how to manage the pressure (with a case of Alferdelics), and isn't afraid of ugly golf when conditions demand it. Pair that up with Farris, a solid stick with a steady hand, who despite years away from the Winter Invitational, is no newcomer. He knows the resort, the vibes, and tends to avoid the big numbers that can plague all of us from time to time. If Rob flashes even a little bit of his old magic and Farris can keep them grounded, this is the kind of duo that can hang around all week and make people uncomfortable heading into the final round.
Why they won't: After watching far too many videos on PornHub, Toey gets the bright idea to start his own porn empire. Unfortunately, his hillbilly lifestyle leads him to miss the crucial "step" in "step-sister" content. Mid-round at Sheep Ranch, Rob gets a call from his producer (aka father-in-law) informing him that his sister is pregnant. Failing to realize that incest is illegal, not to mention frowned upon outside the great state of Kentucky, Rob is overcome with emotion. Acting out of misguided pride, he buys the group a round of drinks in the clubhouse, expecting heartfelt congratulations, only to be met with horror and disgust. Confused, ashamed, and emotionally shattered, Rob heads back to Kentucky early to be consoled by his sister and begin life with his new inbred family.
Mike "One More Hole" Danitz (13.2)
Andrew "Always Sunny" Davis (17.7)
Why they could win: On paper, this pairing has sneaky upside. Their combined willingness to grind through extra holes shows a level of endurance and competitiveness that can separate teams late in the week, especially when others start looking for excuses. When they're locked in, they can ride emotion into momentum and string together stretches of inspired golf. Together, they combine calculated decision making and a quiet confidence, trusting their bag even when conditions get weird. If they can channel their intensity and keep themselves focused on percentages instead of vibes, this team has the kind of unglamorous resilience that can backdoor its way into contention.
Why they won't: After playing 87 more holes than anyone else in the field, mental and physical exhaustion finally catches up with Andrew on the 7th hole on the final day. One too many Charlie Day comparisons pushes him over the edge, triggering a full toddler style meltdown. Screaming "GOD DAMMIT!," Andrew hurls his entire bag into a pond, rips his jacket like Hulk Hogan, and storms off, leaving Danitz alone to finish.
Without his partner, Danitz quickly succumbs to the pressure, finishing with a team net score of 92. After catastrophically miscalculating the odds of a top five finish, Danitz is left with $125,000 debt, forcing him into a brief but ill fated life of prostitution. Old "friend" Challice hears of his plight and offers to pay off his debt, but at a serious cost. Danitz is locked in Challice's basement, fed from a basket, sustained solely on Ensure and trail mix, and is never heard from again.
Steve "Kiddie Pool" Rogers (16.8)
Dan "Belly Laugh" Farmer (16.9)
Why they could win: History is on their side, whether they like it or not. This team has already proven they can lead the field, albeit briefly. Assuming they learned their lesson following the famously irrational decision to go to bed early and act like responsible adults, they could rise to the top of the leaderboard again. If they can avoid that fatal mistake and instead lean into the chaos that fuels them, the upside is obvious. Rogers' relentless stream of commentary has the potential to become psychological warfare, slowly wearing down opponents who just wanted a quiet walk along the coast. Meanwhile, Farmer's infectious laughter keeps the vibes loose, the pressure low, and the group just delusional enough to believe this time will be different. If they stay awake, stay reckless, and resist the urge to prioritize sleep over destiny, they absolutely have the tools to blow another late lead.
Why they won't: Assuming he isn't thrown out of SFO by airport security before even boarding the plane, Rogers sets a new endurance record by talking non-stop for 38 straight hours. Despite taking a year off to work on his emotional health, Farmer breaks. In a fit of rage, he hoists Rogers over his head and hurls him like Emperor Palpatine into the pond behind the Chrome Lake cottages. Unable to touch bottom in three feet of water, and without KB and Quinn there to form a human chain and drag him to shore, Rogers slowly sinks into the mud, still yapping about how Farmer's wife burned the pot roast on St. Patrick's Day in 2014. Farmer is arrested by Coos County Sheriffs and locked in a secluded cell, finding himself engrossed and satisfied by an odd sense of peace and quiet.
David "Junior Smails" Judd (18.4)
Nate "Burpee Goblin" Martin (3.6)
Why they could win: Based on pure golfing ability, this number is insulting. Nate is absurdly, irresponsibly good. One of those players who can erase mistakes with a single swing and casually post rounds that make everyone else start checking handicaps for clerical errors. Judd, meanwhile, is far more dangerous than his committee approved handicap suggests, even if he's not allowed to fully weaponize it. If Nate goes nuclear and Judd merely survives, this team can absolutely hang around long enough to make the rules committee deeply uncomfortable. A hot Nate carrying an artificially suppressed Judd is entirely possible, taking this longshot right to the top of the leaderboard.
Why they won't: Following the blacklisting of Fengler, the detainment of Jarrod, and Farmer's passionate murder of Rogers, Judd dusts off his old law books and vows to defend his Bandon comrades in the courtroom. Determined not to let them down, he pulls three straight all nighters briefing cases, internalizing precedent, and analyzing jurisprudence. To stay awake, he becomes hopelessly addicted to a brutal cocktail of Adderall, Ritalin, and Red Bull. Just as he reaches a legal eureka moment, his heart explodes into an unsustainable rhythm and he collapses in a heap on the floor. Nate loads him up in a stolen Bandon shuttle and rushes him to Coos Bay where Judd is checked into the same recovery center as Murph. The two become roommates, spending the rest of their days playing endless games of pinochle and reminiscing about the glory days of the Winter Invitational.
Dave "The Substitute" Strerath (4.3)
Ken "Go Bag" Paulson (9.3)
Why they could win: Every tournament needs a fairy tale, and this is the one nobody asked for. As impressive as it is that these two jumped into the field less than 24 hours from the trip, they also arrive blissfully unburdened by history, expectations, or basic situational awareness. Sometimes ignorance isn't just bliss; it's competitive. While the rest of the field overreads the break, shakes helplessly in the winds, and shivers with memories of rounds past, these two just swing freely, misinterpret strategy meetings, and accidentally make birdies. If chaos truly is a ladder, these two could stumble their way up it one confused shot at a time.
Why they won't: Wanting the full Winter Invitational experience, Ken joins the crew at the Bachelor's Inn on Monday night. Overcome by an unsettling combination of disgust and desire, he agrees to a $5 private dance from Trixie and follows her to the champagne room. Midway through the performance, he reaches for his drink and accidentally pricks his finger on the edge of the end table, earning himself a brutal sliver. The next morning, Ken wakes up in a cold sweat and discovers his entire left hand has turned into a kaleidoscope of blue, purple, and black. Fearing he may permanently lose his limb, he heads to the nearest emergency room only to learn he's contracted a truly unholy trinity of herpes, hepatitis, and SARS. A full blown outbreak takes over the town, quickly spreads throughout the entire Pacific Northwest, and triggers a global, apocalyptic pandemic, ending all life on Earth.